Knowledgebase: Predictions
Posted by on 29 August 2012 12:19 PM

CEM derives predictions from regression of examination results on either test scores or results of previous examinations.   The best single, objective predictor of A/AS results is average (I)GCSE score1, so ALIS uses this as the main baseline for post-16 exams.  From the start ALIS has used test scores as an alternative baseline.  The currently recommended test is CEM's Computer Adaptive Baseline Test.  This provides a baseline for students without GCSE or IGCSE results, so is particularly important in CEM IBE for students taking the IB Diploma.

Measuring different things: prior achievement and developed ability. comparison of the two predictions can be very useful, suggesting perhaps that a student is capable of higher grades in post-16 exams than previously achieving or, alternatively, may have benefited from learning resources above average.


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